University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metric’s Evaluation created a model for when COVID-19 resource use would peak in each state.
The infographic also projects how many hospital beds, ICU beds, bed shortage (if any) and ventilators may be necessary in each state to address patient need.
The numbers change slightly as information is updated.
Nevada for example is expected to see peak need by April 20th (updated to April 22 on 3/31), having an ICU bed shortage of 100 beds.
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
When a state is chosen under the drop down menu, local mandates and travel restrictions are reported as well.
Anticipation of what will be needed helps local authorities prepare.
The following is a summary of each state’s projected peak resource use in 2020 taken from stats from March 31 and March 30 (these are subject to change):
March 31 Predictions
March 30 Predictions
These projections assume “continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.”
More regarding each state’s resources and death projections can be found here.
This is a developing story….