Record Hurricane Season Predicted For This Year

Colorado State University researchers are predicting a “well above average” Atlantic basin hurricane season this year.

Researchers state they expect 23 named storms, well above the 14.4 mean, with 11 hurricanes, 5 of which would be classified as “major”.

June 1st usually marks the official start of Hurricane season, and it runs until November 30th. However, multiple “special tropical weather outlooks” have been issued before June 1st in the past.

September is usually the most active month.  Hurricanes are categorized by their wind speed and designated as the following using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

• Category I have sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph
• Category II have sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph
• Category III have sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph
• Category IV have sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph
• Category V have sustained  winds of over 157 mph

Category III storms have been known to cause “devastating” damage and Categories IV and V have been associated with “catastrophic” damage.

In any given year, the Atlantic Ocean averages 12-14 named storms with 6 becoming “hurricanes” and 3 becoming “major” meaning a Category III or greater.

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was at one point a Category V but when it hit landfall it was a Category 3, tragically killing over 1800 people and causing $108 billion in damage.  The deadliest hurricane to ever hit US soil, however, was the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 in which over 10,000 people died.

CSU researchers state:

Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

Any given hurricane season may be dependent on “El Nino” and “La Nina” forecasts and water temperatures.

El Nino refers to a ocean-atmospheric interaction where sea surface temperatures rise near the equatorial Pacific, causing increase wind shear in the Atlantic equatorial region and has been linked to lower than active hurricane seasons.  La Nina, however, is reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures extending from the western to east-central Pacific Ocean. La Nina years forecast a more serious hurricane season.

Warmer water temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean as well as monsoon activity in Africa could increase hurricane activity.

So an El Nino hurricane season may offer some protection but can be easily offset by ocean water temperatures. 

This year’s names for the 2024 Hurricane Season are the following:

Atlantic

• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Debby
• Ernesto
• Francine
• Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joyce
• Kirk
• Leslie
• Milton
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Rafael
• Sara
• Tony
• Valerie
• William

If all 21 names become exhausted, 21 supplemental names are available and these include:

• Adria
• Braylen
• Caridad
• Deshawn
• Emery
• Foster
• Gemma
• Heath
• Isla
• Jacobus
• Kenzie
• Lucio
• Makayla
• Nolan
• Orlanda
• Pax
• Ronin
• Sophie
• Tayshaun
• Viviana
• Will

Eastern North Pacific

• Aletta
• Bud
• Carlotta
• Daniel
• Emilia
• Fabio
• Gilma
• Hector
• Ileana
• John
• Kristy
• Lane
• Miriam
• Norman
• Olivia
• Paul
• Rosa
• Sergio
• Tara
• Vicente
• Willa
• Xavier
• Yolanda
• Zeke

How to prepare for the hurricane season

Preparation means starting early.

Make sure you keep informed of the latest alerts and official recommendations.

Evacuate when told to do so by city officials.

Many people will try to tough it out and unfortunately get walled up in their homes.  So make sure you have adequate water (1 gallon per day/person for at least three days) and 1/4 – 1/2 gallon/water/ per pet, except the fish obviously.

Canned foods, flashlights, medical supply kit, batteries, blankets, cash, medications in water proof containers should be set aside for disasters, and put important papers in waterproof/fireproof casings.

According to ready.gov, they recommend the following:

PREPARE NOW

• KNOW YOUR AREA’S RISK OF HURRICANES.
• SIGN UP FOR YOUR COMMUNITY’S WARNING SYSTEM. THE EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM (EAS) AND NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION (NOAA) WEATHER RADIO ALSO PROVIDE EMERGENCY ALERTS.
• IF YOU ARE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, WATCH FOR WARNING SIGNS SUCH AS HEAVY RAIN.
• PRACTICE GOING TO A SAFE SHELTER FOR HIGH WINDS, SUCH AS A FEMA SAFE ROOM OR ICC 500 STORM SHELTER. THE NEXT BEST PROTECTION IS A SMALL, INTERIOR, WINDOWLESS ROOM IN A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST LEVEL THAT IS NOT SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
• BASED ON YOUR LOCATION AND COMMUNITY PLANS, MAKE YOUR OWN PLANS FOR EVACUATION OR SHELTERING IN PLACE.
• BECOME FAMILIAR WITH YOUR EVACUATION ZONE, THE EVACUATION ROUTE, AND SHELTER LOCATIONS.
• GATHER NEEDED SUPPLIES FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS. KEEP IN MIND EACH PERSON’S SPECIFIC NEEDS, INCLUDING MEDICATION. DON’T FORGET THE NEEDS OF PETS.
• KEEP IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS IN A SAFE PLACE OR CREATE PASSWORD-PROTECTED DIGITAL COPIES.
• PROTECT YOUR PROPERTY. DECLUTTER DRAINS AND GUTTERS. INSTALL CHECK VALVES IN PLUMBING TO PREVENT BACKUPS. CONSIDER HURRICANE SHUTTERS. REVIEW INSURANCE POLICIES.

WHEN A HURRICANE IS 36 HOURS FROM ARRIVING

• TURN ON YOUR TV OR RADIO IN ORDER TO GET THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES AND EMERGENCY INSTRUCTIONS.
• RESTOCK YOUR EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KIT. INCLUDE FOOD AND WATER SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS, MEDICATIONS, A FLASHLIGHT, BATTERIES, CASH, AND FIRST AID SUPPLIES.
• PLAN HOW TO COMMUNICATE WITH FAMILY MEMBERS IF YOU LOSE POWER. FOR EXAMPLE, YOU CAN CALL, TEXT, EMAIL OR USE SOCIAL MEDIA. REMEMBER THAT DURING DISASTERS, SENDING TEXT MESSAGES IS USUALLY RELIABLE AND FASTER THAN MAKING PHONE CALLS BECAUSE PHONE LINES ARE OFTEN OVERLOADED.
• REVIEW YOUR EVACUATION ZONE, EVACUATION ROUTE AND SHELTER LOCATIONS. PLAN WITH YOUR FAMILY. YOU MAY HAVE TO LEAVE QUICKLY SO PLAN AHEAD.
• KEEP YOUR CAR IN GOOD WORKING CONDITION, AND KEEP THE GAS TANK FULL; STOCK YOUR VEHICLE WITH EMERGENCY SUPPLIES AND A CHANGE OF CLOTHES.
• IF YOU HAVE NFIP FLOOD INSURANCE, YOUR POLICY MAY COVER UP TO $1000 IN LOSS AVOIDANCE MEASURES, LIKE SANDBAGS AND WATER PUMPS, TO PROTECT YOUR INSURED PROPERTY. YOU SHOULD KEEP COPIES OF ALL RECEIPTS AND A RECORD OF THE TIME SPENT PERFORMING THE WORK. THEY SHOULD BE SUBMITTED TO YOUR INSURANCE ADJUSTER WHEN YOU FILE A CLAIM TO BE REIMBURSED. VISIT WWW.FEMA.GOV/MEDIA-LIBRARY/ASSETS/DOCUMENTS/137860 TO LEARN MORE.

WHEN A HURRICANE IS 18-36 HOURS FROM ARRIVING

• BOOKMARK YOUR CITY OR COUNTY WEBSITE FOR QUICK ACCESS TO STORM UPDATES AND EMERGENCY INSTRUCTIONS.
• BRING LOOSE, LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS INSIDE THAT COULD BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS (E.G., PATIO FURNITURE, GARBAGE CANS); ANCHOR OBJECTS THAT WOULD BE UNSAFE TO BRING INSIDE (E.G., PROPANE TANKS); AND TRIM OR REMOVE TREES CLOSE ENOUGH TO FALL ON THE BUILDING.
• COVER ALL OF YOUR HOME’S WINDOWS. PERMANENT STORM SHUTTERS OFFER THE BEST PROTECTION FOR WINDOWS. A SECOND OPTION IS TO BOARD UP WINDOWS WITH 5/8” EXTERIOR GRADE OR MARINE PLYWOOD, CUT TO FIT AND READY TO INSTALL.

WHEN A HURRICANE IS 6-18 HOURS FROM ARRIVING

• TURN ON YOUR TV/RADIO, OR CHECK YOUR CITY/COUNTY WEBSITE EVERY 30 MINUTES IN ORDER TO GET THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES AND EMERGENCY INSTRUCTIONS.
• CHARGE YOUR CELL PHONE NOW SO YOU WILL HAVE A FULL BATTERY IN CASE YOU LOSE POWER.

WHEN A HURRICANE IS 6 HOURS FROM ARRIVING

• IF YOU’RE NOT IN AN AREA THAT IS RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION, PLAN TO STAY AT HOME OR WHERE YOU ARE AND LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY KNOW WHERE YOU ARE.
• CLOSE STORM SHUTTERS, AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. FLYING GLASS FROM BROKEN WINDOWS COULD INJURE YOU.
• TURN YOUR REFRIGERATOR OR FREEZER TO THE COLDEST SETTING AND OPEN ONLY WHEN NECESSARY. IF YOU LOSE POWER, FOOD WILL LAST LONGER. KEEP A THERMOMETER IN THE REFRIGERATOR TO BE ABLE TO CHECK THE FOOD TEMPERATURE WHEN THE POWER IS RESTORED.
• TURN ON YOUR TV/RADIO, OR CHECK YOUR CITY/COUNTY WEBSITE EVERY 30 MINUTES IN ORDER TO GET THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES AND EMERGENCY INSTRUCTIONS.

SURVIVE DURING

• IF TOLD TO EVACUATE, DO SO IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES.
• IF SHELTERING DURING HIGH WINDS, GO TO A FEMA SAFE ROOM, ICC 500 STORM SHELTER, OR A SMALL, INTERIOR, WINDOWLESS ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR THAT IS NOT SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
• IF TRAPPED IN A BUILDING BY FLOODING, GO TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. DO NOT CLIMB INTO A CLOSED ATTIC. YOU MAY BECOME TRAPPED BY RISING FLOOD WATER.
• LISTEN FOR CURRENT EMERGENCY INFORMATION AND INSTRUCTIONS.
• USE A GENERATOR OR OTHER GASOLINE-POWERED MACHINERY OUTDOORS ONLY AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
• DO NOT WALK, SWIM, OR DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. TURN AROUND. DON’T DROWN! JUST SIX INCHES OF FAST-MOVING WATER CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN, AND ONE FOOT OF MOVING WATER CAN SWEEP YOUR VEHICLE AWAY.
• STAY OFF OF BRIDGES OVER FAST-MOVING WATER.

BE SAFE AFTER

• LISTEN TO AUTHORITIES FOR INFORMATION AND SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS.
• BE CAREFUL DURING CLEAN-UP. WEAR PROTECTIVE CLOTHING AND WORK WITH SOMEONE ELSE.
• DO NOT TOUCH ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT IF IT IS WET OR IF YOU ARE STANDING IN WATER. IF IT IS SAFE TO DO SO, TURN OFF ELECTRICITY AT THE MAIN BREAKER OR FUSE BOX TO PREVENT ELECTRIC SHOCK.
• AVOID WADING IN FLOOD WATER, WHICH CAN CONTAIN DANGEROUS DEBRIS. UNDERGROUND OR DOWNED POWER LINES CAN ALSO ELECTRICALLY CHARGE THE WATER.
• SAVE PHONE CALLS FOR EMERGENCIES. PHONE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN DOWN OR BUSY AFTER A DISASTER. USE TEXT MESSAGES OR SOCIAL MEDIA TO COMMUNICATE WITH FAMILY AND FRIENDS.
• DOCUMENT ANY PROPERTY DAMAGE WITH PHOTOGRAPHS. CONTACT YOUR INSURANCE COMPANY FOR ASSISTANCE.

Always have an emergency plan, practice it with family members, discuss with distantly located relatives how you will notify each other of your safety, and stay tuned to your radio, TV, wireless emergency alerts encase evacuations are ordered.

Learning Medical Spanish is Easy!!!

Daliah Wachs, MD, FAAFP is a nationally syndicated radio personality on GCN Network, KDWN, and iHeart Radio.